Crystal Ball Report


A Monte Carlo implementation by www.decisioneering.com.


Simulation started on 9/19/02 at 16:30:04 and stopped at 16:30:10


Forecast: Total Project cost  
Summary:  
Certainty Level is 74.03%  
Certainty Range is from Infinity to 50.00  
Display Range is from 30.00 to 65.00  
Entire Range is from 34.75 to 63.68  
After 3,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.09  
Statistics:  Value  
Trials  3000  
Mean  46.67  
Median  46.36  
Mode    
Standard Deviation  4.93  
Variance  24.31  
Skewness  0.30  
Kurtosis  2.68  
Coeff. of Variability  0.11  
Range Minimum  34.75  
Range Maximum  63.68  
Range Width  28.93  
Mean Std. Error  0.09  


Forecast: Total Project cost (cont'd)  
Percentiles:  
Percentile  Value  
0%  34.75  
5%  39.06  
10%  40.37  
15%  41.52  
20%  42.23  
25%  42.97  
30%  43.73  
35%  44.40  
40%  45.00  
45%  45.58  
50%  46.36  
55%  47.00  
60%  47.79  
65%  48.44  
70%  49.29  
75%  50.16  
80%  50.94  
85%  52.00  
90%  53.18  
95%  55.24  
100%  63.68  
End of Forecast  
Assumptions  
Assumptions: Design  
Triangular distribution with parameters:  
Minimum  4.00  (=I6)  
Likeliest  6.00  (=J6)  
Maximum  10.00  (=K6)  
Selected range is from 4.00 to 10.00  


Assumptions: Build  
Triangular distribution with parameters:  
Minimum  16.00  (=I7)  
Likeliest  20.00  (=J7)  
Maximum  35.00  (=K7)  
Selected range is from 16.00 to 35.00  


Assumptions: Test  
Triangular distribution with parameters:  
Minimum  11.00  (=I8)  
Likeliest  15.00  (=J8)  
Maximum  23.00  (=K8)  
Selected range is from 11.00 to 23.00  


End of Assumptions  