Crystal Ball Report
A Monte Carlo implementation by www.decisioneering.com.
Simulation started on 9/19/02 at 16:30:04 and stopped at 16:30:10
Forecast:  Total Project cost  
Summary:
Certainty Level is 74.03%
Certainty Range is from -Infinity to 50.00 
Display Range is from 30.00 to 65.00
Entire Range is from 34.75 to 63.68
After 3,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is 0.09
Statistics: Value
Trials 3000
Mean 46.67
Median 46.36
Mode ---
Standard Deviation 4.93
Variance 24.31
Skewness 0.30
Kurtosis 2.68
Coeff. of Variability 0.11
Range Minimum 34.75
Range Maximum 63.68
Range Width 28.93
Mean Std. Error 0.09
Forecast:  Total Project cost  (cont'd)  
Percentiles:
Percentile Value
0% 34.75
5% 39.06
10% 40.37
15% 41.52
20% 42.23
25% 42.97
30% 43.73
35% 44.40
40% 45.00
45% 45.58
50% 46.36
55% 47.00
60% 47.79
65% 48.44
70% 49.29
75% 50.16
80% 50.94
85% 52.00
90% 53.18
95% 55.24
100% 63.68
End of Forecast
Assumptions
Assumptions:  Design  
 Triangular distribution with parameters:
Minimum 4.00 (=I6)
Likeliest 6.00 (=J6)
Maximum 10.00 (=K6)
Selected range is from 4.00 to 10.00
Assumptions: Build  
 Triangular distribution with parameters:
Minimum 16.00 (=I7)
Likeliest 20.00 (=J7)
Maximum 35.00 (=K7)
Selected range is from 16.00 to 35.00
Assumptions: Test    
 Triangular distribution with parameters:
Minimum 11.00 (=I8)
Likeliest 15.00 (=J8)
Maximum 23.00 (=K8)
Selected range is from 11.00 to 23.00
End of Assumptions